Welcome to January 2025 Insights. I hope the year has started well for you.
A couple of weeks ago, I shared my assessment of the state of the world in 2025, focusing on what business leaders need to know and understand about how this year might unfold. If you missed it and are interested, you can find the blog here.
It’s already been a busy start to the year. Here’s what I’ve learned in January:
What I’ve learned about the context
Fertility trends are reshaping the global population: According to the UNDP, as of 2019, at least two-thirds of the global population lived in sub-replacement fertility countries (births of fewer than 2.1 per couple). Among developed nations, the US is the main outlier. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the last bastion countering this trend (@Nicholas Eberstadt, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec for more on this).
CEOs are under growing pressure to do more: @McKinsey estimates that CEOs are now addressing twice as many issues as they were a decade ago, leading to significantly higher demands on their time and attention.
Deregulation may lead to unintended consequences: Trump’s relaxation of the regulatory environment will drive short-term economic growth. However, history shows that reduced oversight often increases the risk of significant mistakes—particularly in new technologies. Past examples include the initial rollout of GMOs, early electric cars, and the nuclear incident at Three Mile Island.
A shift from net zero to AI: In the US, net zero is out, and AI is in. AI’s significant energy requirements have pushed companies to explore smaller nuclear reactors. While promising, these will take time to develop, so expect a short-term rise in gas production.
How important is the private sector in the new Trump administration: Trump’s administration has placed the private sector at the centre of policymaking. You only need to look at his inauguration to see prominent US tech CEOs seated in front of future cabinet members.
Policy noise as a political strategy: Trump’s strategy of overwhelming the system with numerous policy proposals creates confusion and divides opposition, enabling some of his policies to pass more easily. (I’ll be sending out a note on this shortly.)
Barrels on the market: With 92% of Iran’s crude oil exports going to China, it’s likely that China will pre-empt US demands by reducing its imports, potentially removing about 500,000 barrels per day from the global market.
The Davos zeitgeist: In the words of one US tech CEO, “This year is different. There’s less power in the air.”
What I’ve learned about people
Breakthroughs often come from unexpected places: Roughly half of all patents result from spontaneous discoveries. As @Nathan Myhrvold and @Adam Grant suggest in the latter’s podcast, if you’ve been stuck hitting the same spot for a while, move to “find a soft patch in the wall”. WorkLife with Adam Grant - Soft patches in the wall
Ideas are abundant; execution is scarce: This should reshape how we think about sharing and acting on ideas.
Small groups, not big brainstorms, drive creativity: Research shows that small-group ideation sessions, paired with independent thought beforehand, generate far more productive ideas than large brainstorming groups (Adam Grant).
Success is about becoming, not shaping: “Our job in this life is not to shape ourselves into some ideal we imagine we ought to be, but to find out who we already are and become it.” (@Steven Pressfield).
Incremental effort compounds into excellence: Spending just 18 minutes a day on a preferred activity can make you better than 95% of the population in that skill over a year (@Ben Bergeron on The High Performance Podcast - Ben Bergeron episode).
What I’ve learned about myself
Reconnecting with purpose brings joy: When I lose sight of the outcomes I’m creating (my purpose), the work becomes just “work.” Taking time to remind myself why I do what I do helps me find joy in the process.
Visualising my best self improves outcomes: I’ve started asking, what would it look like if I did this at my absolute best, and then I model that. It’s a powerful mindset shift and a lesson I keep having to learn.
Presence delivers results (I think): Being fully present in meetings makes for both a more enjoyable experience, but I suspect also leads to better results. If you’ve seen any studies that provide evidence for this, I’d love to hear about them.
Time to think is critical to my best work: I’m at my best when I carve out time to think instead of rushing through tasks. Breathe. Spend less time on admin.
My plan for 2025
This year, I’ve decided not to have a fixed plan. Instead, I’ll focus on doing my job well, improving my performance, and staying open and curious about what comes my way. It feels uncomfortable, but I’m trusting my intuition on this.
I’d love to hear your plan for the year. What challenges do you see, and what opportunities excite you? Please reach out and let me know—I’d be delighted to discuss.
I’m working on a TedX talk I’m giving in a few months on ‘how to ask good questions’. If you have any thoughts or good anecdotes, I’d love to hear them.
Best wishes,
Xenia
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