The Dangers Ahead: The Emerging Vacuum
Outrage isn’t a strategy. The world is shifting—fast—and we must work with it as it is, not as we wish it to be.
I am not an apologist for Donald Trump. Much of what he’s doing—and how he’s doing it—is reprehensible and damaging, not just for the U.S. but for the world. But European leaders must move beyond shock and hand-wringing. The question isn’t whether Trump’s approach is palatable. It’s whether Europe, and its businesses, are ready for the consequences—and what it plans to do about them.
A Shift That Should Surprise No One
Much of the new White House’s approach was signposted long ago. The U.S. has long bankrolled Western security—covering over two-thirds of NATO’s costs, providing a quarter of global development aid from Development Assistance Committee (DAC) nations, and acting as the backbone of international stability. Every U.S. administration from Clinton onward has asked allies to step up. The response? Tepid, at best. Now, America is simply acting on those warnings.
Interests, Not Just Values, Drive Alliances
There’s a comforting but misleading notion that Western alliances have always been built on shared values. That’s at best only half the story. To paraphrase the 19th century British parliamentarian Lord Palmerston, nations don’t have permanent alliances—only permanent interests. In fact, we would throw out our politicians if they didn’t prioritise their own populations – our interests – first. Trump’s view is that U.S. interests are better served by keeping resources at home rather than underwriting global stability. We can—and I would—argue that he’s getting the balance wrong. But let’s not pretend the previous balance was perfect either.
The Emerging Power Vacuum
The real danger isn’t just America’s retreat—it’s the vacuum that follows. If Europe doesn’t step in, others will. And those ‘others’—China, Russia—are not invested in preserving the liberal order that Europe, and its businesses, have relied on for decades. The choice for European leaders is stark: either assume greater responsibility or accept a world where adversaries shape the future.
The Hard Trade-Offs Ahead
I don’t pretend this will be easy. Western societies are demanding more from their governments—better infrastructure, stronger healthcare, relief from rising costs.
Defence spending is a hard sell in this climate. But global stability has never come without cost.
For decades, America carried more than its share of the burden. This U.S. administration is no longer willing to do so. The real question is whether Europe and its allies will step up—or watch as the world tilts in a direction they won’t like. Are we willing to bear the costs of sustaining the liberal world order under which our economies and businesses have thrived? Real trade-offs will be required.
Right now, I remain sceptical that Europe will be able to make these choices in the time frame required. Change will likely come only when the alternative—Chinese or Russian influence—becomes too costly to ignore. But by then, the price will be much higher.
Read my blog on What's Going On In The US here
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